TALLADEGA -Z7 Finney Legendary

Today's spotlight is on Talladega, a Legendary Finney racer. Talladega is available on OpenSea and the owner has listed her for the low low price of 500 ETH. I'm pretty sure that's to discourage low ball offers though and doesn't reflect what the true market value of the horse is.  The following family tree sourced from https://zedrun.tools/bloodline/33756.

      Talladega's Sire: 

      • Seventh Month #340 Z1 Genesis Nakamoto
      • 4 Paid Races
      • 25% Win Rate
      • 50% Show Rate
      • Competitive odds (see graph)
      • 13 offspring : of note are
        • Satori 33.33% Win Rate, 66.67% Show Rate (dam is Speedy Tunes) (currently entered into 2 races per KYH with non competitive odds)
        • Most other offspring, unraced, griffin only or lightly raced.
        • Talladega (discussed below)

      Talladega's Dam

      • Officially Extraordinary #21288 Z6 Genesis Finney
      • 35 Paid Races
      • 2.86% Win Rate
      • 20.0% Show Rate
      • Odds vary from 12-24 (see graph)
      • 2 offspring : of note are
        • Hickory 0% Win Rate, 11.11% Show Rate (sire is Shy Excellence a Z2 Nakamoto Genesis) (born July 8th, 2021)
        • Talladega (discussed below) (born June 29th, 2021)

      Talladega:

      • Z7 Finney Legendary
      • 74 Paid Races
      • 31.08% Win Rate
      • 47.3% Show Rate
      • odds best at 2400m (see graph below)
      • U shaped (see graph below)
      • 95.59% +ROI
      • 0.0055 ETH profit to date
      • unbred filly

      Talladega hasn't been racing the track very long and with the current increased wait times in racing we have somewhat limited data to evaluate this horse. I like looking at horses with at least 100 paid races when possible, but since we are basically 3/4 of the way there, we can extrapolate that this horses trajectory should remain somewhat the same.

      Talladega is a long distance specialist, at the 2400m this horse is a beast with an average of 5.46 odds over 42 races. It is still competitive in other distances but this horse is downright scary in it's dominant distance. In the 2400m alone this horse has won 45.2% of the time.

      Talladega is currently in Class I. Most horses notice a slight dip in win percentages when they get there, it's often called "the graveyard" because that's where many horses go to die. Limping up into Class I or winning until they get to Class I and then not being able to compete with the existing beasts in that class. Talladega doesn't look like she's going to have a problem competing in Class I. The next graph represents her finishes in her dominant distance, 2400m, and Class I races only with a whopping 46.67% Win Rate and 53.33% Show Rate:

      This new beast of Class I was interestingly enough bred from a z6 Genesis Finney and a Z1 Genesis Nakamoto. Since the majority of offspring from her sire, Seventh Month, aren't really raced it's hard to say how much influence his "DNA" had on her race ability. Talladega's dam, Officially Extraordinary may help us with that though since she has another offspring with a different sire within a 30 day period.

      Talladega is the first offspring of Officially Extraordinary born immediately when this new breeding cycle opened up in June. When she reset and gave another offspring, Hickory, in July with a different sire we see quite a different result. Hickory isn't nearly as competitive as Talladega. Hickory is currently a Class IV horse but the owner has put him in quite a few Class I races where it can't compete. Hickory and Talladega are like night and day. Hickory's sire was a Genesis Nakamoto as well but we just see a huge disparity in odds between the two offspring...so what does that mean?

      Breeding is still a conundrum for us. We see a beast of a racer born to one sire and a very noncompetitive horse born to another. Does that mean one sire is good and another not? No. What breeding is starting to show us is either that blending two algorithms is either "compatible" or it's not. Or, that none of it matters and everything is completely random. Which I don't subscribe to.

      Data still shows us that competitive horses are bred from at least somewhat competitive horses. As of yet I have not seen two "glue" horses make a great racing offspring WITHOUT there being a racer somewhere back in the family tree. If you have had or know, of a great racer born from two 40+ odd Genesis horses please reach out to me because I would love to analyze and follow them.

      Breeding hasn't been open even a month but I love seeing all the theories out there being tested. Don't be afraid to experiment, breeding is supposed to be a fun component of the game. But, I know it's always a good feeling when you breed some monsters!

      What are your thoughts on what may have contributed to such a great racer being born? I look forward to hearing from you!

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